Welcome to the Third World War, a Geopolitical Perspective

By Terence Cho Ngang–Political Observer in Bamenda, Cameroon.

The 3rd world war has now officially begun and will usher in a new world order with a significant paradigm shift as far as the global balance of power is concerned. It’s been a long time coming.

History has a way of repeating itself. The signs don’t lie.

Here are my predictions of what would likely happen in the coming weeks, months, and maybe years, after Moscow’s decision to invade Ukraine today.

Biden and NATO will, in the coming hours, announce what they have termed “full scale, crippling economic sanctions” on Russia, aimed at completely cutting the country off from the world economy.

One thing is for sure! Sanctions alone, though potentially hurtful to the Russian people, will NOT deter Putin from pursuing his mission of conquering Kyiv. 

After a few weeks when the UN, NATO, and the US will ‘realize’ that Putin is moving towards achieving his goal, and dead bodies start piling up in Ukraine, the game will change and they will push for a resolution at the UNSC, to put boots on the ground in Ukraine. 

When that happens, it would have marked a turning point in the world order as we know it. Many bizarre, but expected things will happen.

1. China is a close ally of Russia and has been pushing it’s agenda of a ‘ONE CHINA’ for a long time. With the US (police of the world) now i) embroiled in open confrontation with the Nuclear capable Russia, it will be a once in a lifetime chance for China to make it’s move on Taiwan and Hong Kong. China will launch a full scale invasion of these territories and with it’s military might, would overwhelm and annex them in a very brief period (weeks). The the US may want to show strength by intervening. It’s intervention will only do as little as prolonging the conflict, rather than stopping China.
2. The only thing that North Korea needs to invade South Korea and enforce it’s ‘one Korea’ policy is just a little bit of chaos in the world. With the US already weakened in the Balkan Peninsula and the South China sea, Kim Jong Um will march on South Korea within a few weeks, Seoul will be under siege.
3. There is no such thing as international law in the context of a world war. For that reason, countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia may go head-on over Yemen.

India will go head-on with Pakistan over the region of Kashmir.

4. Human rights abuses will be common place. In Africa for example, old conflicts will become even fierce. Dictatorship will increase. In Ethiopia, PM Abiy may not see the need for dialogue again with the TPLF and may chose to use extreme force on the people in the  Tigray. After all, there’s no one to be accountable to. Similar conflicts like in Cameroon (NOSO), Morocco (Western Sahara) and maybe Nigeria (Biafra) will follow that pattern. Long nights of nightmares.
5. If the war remains conventional ( I do hope it does), it will end in a truce creating a new world body (new UN) with more permanent members in it’s security council (more than 10), the US losing it’s unique status as world police, a new international law, etc.
6. If we are not so fortunate, and one of those giants decides to use unconventional weapons (nuclear bombs, chemical or biological weapons), the thing will become more complicated and we may end up with a Europe that is uninhabitable for the next 100 years. No body wants that. But if that were to happen, Africa will become the new paradise on Earth!

“Them no di tell deaf and dumb say war don start”.