OPINION: Cameroon’s Post-Election Violence, The Threat of a Coup and What Yaounde Should Do?
By Hans Ngala
It’s been nearly three weeks since Paul Biya was declared winner in a now-disputed selection result. The announcement of Biya’s victory on October 27 led to protests nationwide and came after opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary already declared himself winner.
According to Cameroon’s The Voice newspaper, some 55 people have lost their lives in the ensuing post-election clashes with security forces with most pockets of resistance being in the Littoral and northern regions. This is the first time in Biya’s four-decade rule, that the country is experiencing post-electoral violence on this scale according to those who lived through the 1992 post-election violence.
Tensions remain high and Biya’s official Facebook page has been churning out messages calling for “peace” and “unity”. For his part, Issa Tchiroma remains defiant, vowing to “claim his victory back”after recently issuing a 48-hour ultimatum to Yaounde to release all those arrested and imprisoned in connection with election disputes.
Territorial Administration Minister, Paul Atanga Nji conducted a hasty mission to the Adamawa Region which some observers saw as a means to try and diffuse tensions and get a sense of the situation in this part of the country where Tchiroma also holds great sway. During this visit, some 70 youth arrested and detained in connection with the protests, were freed. Another 65 remain in detention.
As Cameroon continues to teeter on the brink of what some fear could be a coup, the international community has been largely silent with some avoiding congratulating Biya on his “victory”. The US, China, the UK, the African Union, Chad, Gabon and the Commonwealth have all issued statements congratulating Biya – moves seen by Cameroonians, especially the country’s Anglophone community – as a slap in the face. These Cameroonians have suffered torture, maiming and abuse from both soldiers and separatist fighters in a war declared by Paul Biya himself. While initially, the US declared some sanctions on the Biya regime (even kicking Cameroon out of AGOA), Yaounde has largely evaded any serious scrutiny in how it treated its Anglophone community so brutally and now, in how it is handling post-election violence.
As recently as yesterday November 13, MMI News reported that several soldiers were arrested in the Mayo Danay area of the Far North Region. “Details remain limited, but sources suggest coordinated arrests took place late last night, targeting soldiers believed to have exchanged messages or maintained links with Tchiroma, who has declared himself the winner of the disputed October 12 presidential election” MMI News reported.
This alleged coup plot, the lingering tensions and the pockets of protests that persist in various towns scattered across Cameroon, speak to the disillusionment which many have with the October 12 election results.
What Can Yaounde Do?
While it would have been fair to call for a rerun or a recount of the votes, it is clear that this will never happen in Cameroon. At least, not under Biya’s watch and so the best thing is for the country to find a way to navigate this complex issue. There is the risk of more people dying or getting arrested if protests continue and with Anglophone regions already suffering a major conflict, the same risks happening more in the northern regions where porous borders, vast expanses of land, government neglect and systemic corruption all provide fodder for political extremism as is already seen by the presence of Boko Haram and incursions of Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in this part of the country.
Having learned lessons from as recently as Madagascar where protests over water and electricity in late November later morphed into demands for President Andry Rajoelina to step down – Yaounde would do best to read the warning signs on the wall. A country with staggering unemployment, unchecked corruption, incompetent governance at almost every level, bad roads and erratic water and electricity supplies like Cameroon does, is the perfect recipe for disaster such as a coup getting staged. Authorities will do well to address these issues instead of resorting to demonizing genuinely aggrieved citizens and attempting to portray these aggrieved citizens as somehow less patriotic than those who support the regime.
But beyond Yaounde’s internal calculations, the stance of the international community remains a critical variable in determining whether Cameroon moves toward de-escalation or deeper instability. The world has watched this crisis unfold largely from a distance, choosing stability over justice, and favoring a 92-year-old leader whose political longevity has come at the expense of institutional decay. Yet history in the Central African sub-region shows that propping up ageing, unpopular regimes in the name of “stability” often produces the opposite outcome.
The 2023 coup in neighboring Gabon is a recent and telling example. There, decades of entrenched rule by the Bongo family—long shielded by international partners—ended abruptly when the military seized power minutes after a visibly unfit Ali Bongo was declared winner of a disputed election, similar to what is now going on in Cameroon. While coups are never ideal or desirable, the Gabon case demonstrated that ignoring widespread public discontent does not preserve stability; it merely delays an explosion. Cameroon is now exhibiting the same early warning signs: an aggrieved electorate, contested results, heavy-handed security responses, and factions within the military showing signs of fracture.
This is why the international community must reassess its posture. Ordinary Cameroonians, not the entrenched elite, are the ones who pay the highest price for instability, repression, or the outbreak of conflict. Their aspirations for accountable governance, credible elections, and rule of law should not be dismissed as threats to stability but embraced as the foundation for long-term peace. International partners must therefore pressure Yaounde toward meaningful dialogue, support independent investigations into election disputes, and insist on political reforms that reduce the structural risks of a military takeover.
Going forward, mediation is essential. Religious leaders, civil society, regional bodies like ECCAS, the African Union and neutral international actors can help craft a framework for national dialogue focused on electoral reforms, power devolution, and reconciliation—especially with marginalized communities such as Anglophone regions and the northern regions. Confidence-building measures such as releasing protesters, guaranteeing press freedom, and initiating a transparent audit of the electoral process would significantly lower tensions.
Cameroon stands at a crossroads. Ignoring popular grievances as the world did in Gabon, Mali, Niger and more recently Madagascar – is risky. Supporting the people’s demand for fairness, dignity, and accountability offers the surest path to preventing a coup and steering the Cameroon back from the precipice. Failure to do so could mean we are looking at yet another coup waiting to happen in Africa soon but if Yaounde can take appropriate measures, the problem – as difficult as it may appear now – could be handled to the satisfaction of all Cameroonians.
