Group says over 60% Cameroonians want federalism
The Opinion poll was obtained through an online post on Facebook, the most used social media platform in Cameroon. In the polls, 201 responses were recorded, 1100 likes, and 901 comments.
“The comments showed a strong desire among Cameroonians to engage with this topic. A review of the comments speaks to a strong nationwide support for federation. The national average is a modest conservative capture of that spirit of federalism sweeping across the nation. It is now left for political parties to take advantage of this political leaning and fine-tune their party manifestos.” The English Cameroon for United Cameroon said, in a statement obtained by CNA.
The platform stated that “Given the current atmosphere if an anti-federalist party is declared to have won a major election such as the presidential election in two, we can only conclude that massive electoral fraud has been orchestrated against the sovereign people of Cameroon.”
The six-month continuous data collection gap had some limits, “But we are confident that on the form of state, we are making a conservative measurement of the high support for federalism.” the group reaffirmed.
Figures from the polls stated that 62.4% of respondents from Anglophone regions, described as West Cameroon support calls for the independence of the regions while nationally, only 27.4% want separation.
But this support for independence according to the polls should not be pursued via war as only 25% of respondents support the ongoing war of the former Southern Cameroons.
Details of the Polls
- Should schools remain CLOSED in former Southern Cameroons until political conflict is resolved?
West Cameroon average: only 5.4% say yes
National average: 13.1% say yes
Comment: Separatists need to take note of this fact that people do not want schools to be closed. They make themselves unpopular with lockdowns that leave children at a disadvantage with a shorter school year. It is not clear whether some regions tacitly benefit from the collapse of educational industry in war-torn regions and so want to continue to benefit from the situation; the national average is strangely high.
- Should ghost towns continue in former Southern Cameroons until the political conflict is resolved?
West Cameroon average: 50.3%
National average: 31.8%
Comment: while there is some national support for this, it is lower than the West Cameroon average of 50.3%. But the West Cameroon average indicates a decline in support for this option, compared to previous measurements.
- Which form of state do you prefer?
West Cameroon averages:
Federation: 74.5%
Decentralized unitary state: 2.0%
Centralized unitary state: 0.9%
Against all options: 22.6%
National averages:
Federation: 65.4%
Decentralized unitary state: 24.9%
Centralized unitary state: 3.1%
Against all options: 6.6%
Comment: this is first known poll that clearly establishes the strong nationwide preference for federalism. In former Southern Cameroons, the 22.6% who are opposed to all suggested forms of state are die-hard separatists whose percentage support almost mirrors those who support independence through war. A breakdown by regions show that Littoral and West regions are the most federalist and East and North regions the least federalist.
- How should a potential federation be structured?
West Cameroon averages:
Each region becomes a federated state: 58.3%
Two or more regions should form a federated state: 14.0%
Flexible with respect to structure of federation: 7.6%
Against all options: 20.1%
National averages:
Each region becomes a federated state: 53.7%
Two or more regions should form a federated state: 18.3%
Flexible with respect to structure of federation: 14.3%
Against all options: 13.6%
Comment: on this issue, as on the issue of the form of state, the West Cameroon average is close to the national average. A federalist disposition seems to impose itself: when smaller regions have gained a sense of some autonomy, it is hard to convince them to give it up in exchange for a larger administrative unit. This must be interpreted with care in the case of former Southern Cameroons, where the separatist minded folks and some flexible opinions can swing the balance in favor of two or more regions forming a state. It is possible that some people in NW and SW have voted against two or more regions forming a state because they fear formation of federated states that cut across our two distinct core value systems.
- Eligible voters who are not yet registered
West Cameroon average: 47.4% of poll participants are not registered to vote
National average: 29.2% of poll participants are not registered to vote
Comment: There is reason to believe that this poll disproportionately attracted registered voters. It is seems that more than 50% of eligible voters in former Southern Cameroons are not registered to vote. According to ELECAM update, there are about 7.52 million registered voters (before curation of voter register). Cameroon’s population, demographic structure, and voting age threshold suggest that there should be about 12 million registered voters. This would mean that nationwide, there are about 37% eligible voters who are not registered to vote. This poll shows that only 29.2% of participants are not registered to vote. It is close but again reflects the fact that poll participants are slightly over representing registered voters. The civil society and ELECAM should treat the situation in former Southern Cameroons as a national emergency. There ought to be a way to rescue the under representation of Anglophones in the voting register.
- Preference for partner region in case of two or more regions forming a federated state
Readers should consult the detailed results. Some general comments:
8.1. There is strong mutuality between NW and SW regions
8.2. Centre region enjoys strong preference toward it from East and South regions
8.3. West and Littoral suffer unreciprocated affinity for NW and SW, respectively.
8.4. Adamawa expresses strong interest in forming a state with the East but this is not reciprocal
8.5. Some Northern regions go beyond contiguous considerations and express interest in NW.
8.6. Adamawa’s strong preference for East is moderated in case more than two regions can form a state. In which case, the three northern regions can reasonably become a single federated state.
Concluding comment on this: Unless a strong case is made for economy of scale, it seems that federalist activists who want two or more regions to form a federated state will have a hard time defeating the strong support for regions becoming federated states.
In conclusion, Cameroon belongs to us all. We are not subjects but citizens of this beautiful country. Its sovereignty belongs to us all and we can steer this national ship into political stability and prosperity through civil debates and democratic decision making. There is no problem that is too difficult for a free and sovereign people. Neither coups d’etat nor rigged elections can free us. We must valiantly defend our constitutional democracy and become the masters of our destiny. We thank all those who helped the nation to advance this debate on the form of state by participating in this poll. We look forward to the next opinion poll on the form of state in April 2024.
May God bless you. May God bless and defend this country from the enemies of constitutional democracy and freedom.
English Cameroon for a united Cameroon
October 21, 2023
