ANALYSIS: How will a second Trump presidency affect Cameroon?

By Hans Ngala

Last week former US President Donald Trump made news when he won the US presidency for a second, non-consecutive term. He is only the second president in US history since Grover Cleveland to stage such a historic comeback.

Trump got 312 votes against his Democrat rival Kamala Harris who got 226. Harris who currently serves as US Vice President conceded in a message, telling Americans “The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for, but hear me when I say … the light of America’s promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting.” She vowed to “never give up the fight for our democracy”.

Trump’s victory has been met with a lot of skepticism across the African continent and this skepticism stems from, among other issues, fears that he will significantly scale back funding on key issues that are of benefit to the continent; including in areas such as health care as well as fears that he will tighten immigration laws that will make it harder for certain categories of people from Africa to enter the United States.

But exactly, what will a second Trump term of office in the White House mean for Cameroon?

Most experts agree that it is very uncertain at this stage, but that looking at his first tenure in the White House will be a good lense through which to gauge his second term of office.

Some key areas that are likely to be affected during Trump’s second term of office include:

Trade and the Economy

In October 2019, the Trump administration announced a ban on Cameroon from The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which allows African countries to export goods to the US without taxes on them. The ban took effect in January 2020 and remains in force to date, though the Biya government tried to rejoin under the Biden administration. However, with Trump back in office, the ban is unlikely to be lifted as Trump is poised to fix the US economy and “make America great again”. Not much has changed since 2020 when the ban took effect as Biya’s forces continue their brutal crackdown on insurgents in the NW and SW whom they refer to as “terrorists”. The crackdown was the reason for Cameroon’s expulsion from AGOA.

The recent pleas by Cameroonian authorities to rejoin AGOA under Biden is a clear indication of how the ban is biting deep into Cameroon’s economy.

China is a large player on the field now and while private US companies may want to do trade or invest in Cameroon, the Trump administration is not likely to be spearheading these moves.

 PEPFAR Funding

There are currently 480,000 people living with HIV in Cameroon according to the World Health Organization and the US has been a key ally with Cameroon in the fight against HIV/AIDS. Since 2011, Cameroon has been receiving funding through The U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) which ensures that those living with HIV can have access to free treatment which enables them to live normal, productive lives. However, with Trump’s “America first” approach to politics, he may likely want to discontinue or significantly cut down funding for this program which will mean a lot of beneficiaries will be at stake.

Climate Action

Following Trump’s victory on Tuesday, Cameroonian climate activist and former reporter, Eugene Nforngwa wrote: “With Donald J. Trump back in the Oval Office, the international climate community has reason to feel a chill. His return raises the specter of another America-first, fossil-fuel-friendly approach, potentially undermining critical progress at COP29. Much of the groundwork laid under Biden’s administration—a recommitment to the Paris Agreement, ambitious emission targets, and billions pledged for climate finance—could be undone in a single term. For a world on the brink of critical warming thresholds, the implications are serious.”

Nforngwa’s warnings are backed by scientific facts, which Trump has referred to as “hoaxes”. Trump does not believe in climate change which has led to all-time highs in temperatures around the world; as well as severe weather patterns, including in Cameroon where the National Observatory on Climate Change warned in September that the last 10 days of that month would see as much as 100 millimeters of rain. Sure enough there were landslides and floods that killed a little girl in Bamenda.

These extreme weather patters of heavy rain and flooding in some parts of the world; and extreme heat and drought in others – affects not only crops, but also destroys livelihoods and claims human lives. Nforngwa argues that if Trump leads the world’s strongest economy in climate change denialism, “other nations may also lose resolve”.

Immigration

One of the main issues during Trump’s campaign was immigration. His comments about immigrants allegedly eating residents’ cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio have been debunked even by the mayor of Springfield and investigators. Though the comments were false, they reveal the seriousness of immigration to Trump and the Republican party. There certainly has been record numbers of unchecked immigration into the US under President Joe Biden’s administration and in an effort to reverse this trend, a second Trump presidency could mean that certain programs such as the Diversity Visa program which has enabled thousands of Cameroonians to immigrate to the US over the years, could be discontinued or the rules made tougher to limit the number of those entering the US.

In 2020, Trump deported some 100 Cameroonians back to Cameroon. Most of those deportees were reportedly fleeing the insecurity and unrest in the Anglophone NW and SW regions of the country.

Focus on Counterterrorism, Not Human Rights

Trump’s administration often downplayed human rights considerations when engaging with countries like Cameroon. However, If terrorism (as is the case with Boko Haram up North) and instability (mainly in the NW and SW) remain a concern in the country, the Trump administration could continue to prioritize military assistance with limited regard for issues like the treatment of detainees or internal conflict, particularly in the Anglophone regions though the Trump administration did cut some military assistance when there were reports that the Cameroon government was likely diverting US military assistance meant to fight Boko Haram, to the Anglophone regions.

Cameroon-US Relations

Trump’s victory coincided with President Paul Biya’s 42nd year in office as Cameroon’s president. With Trump promising to put America first, this would be to the advantage of Cameroon’s sit-tight Paul Biya who takes a tactical approach to leadership, preferring not to have too much outside interference with his style of leadership. Trump is likely to pass any sanctions or make any comments about Biya’s lengthy stay in power as he will be focused on internal US issues.

Conclusion

In all, a second Trump presidency will make it tougher for people to immigrate to the US and will be advantageous to Cameroon’s government which has been widely criticized for its poor handling of the Anglophone Crisis even though it receives a lot of support for the fight against Boko Haram. While there may be continued funding and support for Boko Haram under Trump, this will likely be curtailed significantly.

However, with elections scheduled in Cameroon for 2025 (the same year Trump’s second term of office begins), 92-year-old Biya will most certainly be running for another term of office and will be comfortable under a Trump presidency that doesn’t focus too much on democracy and human rights issues.