By Synthia Lateu
The latest monetary policy report from the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) projects a rise in economic growth for the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) sub-region, forecasting an increase to 3.2% in 2025, up from 2.7% in 2024.
BEAC attributes this optimistic outlook to various ongoing structural transformation initiatives, including a sub-regional strategy for the import substitution of local products such as beef, fish, cassava, and rice. The central bank believes that these initiatives will mitigate the impact of external demand instability, particularly due to weak Chinese demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
However, this positive forecast for the six-member CEMAC countries has left experts questioning its feasibility, citing challenges in industrialization and macroeconomic stability. Analysts caution that achieving these growth targets will require greater political will, regional cooperation, and effective policy implementation.
Economist Louis Marie Kakdeu emphasizes that attaining these growth goals is heavily dependent on macroeconomic stability, which he believes is currently lacking in the sub-region. “In my view, the optimism surrounding this issue is misplaced, and success appears improbable,” he stated, referencing inadequate control over microeconomic indicators.
Another economist, Christian Hervé Balogog, identifies industrialization as the primary lever for sustained and progressive growth. He notes, however, that projections are achievable based on the potential of the six countries.
According to BEAC’s document, economic growth in the CEMAC region is expected to continue rising in 2026 and 2027, reaching an annual rate of 3.8%.
