Niger Coup: Why diplomacy may do better than military actions

By Jerry O. Jonah*

All over the World there is the need for increased democratic practice. This is what Liz Schrayer, CEO ‘U.S. Global Leadership Coalition’ summed up in her article “America’s Diplomats are Missing in Action – It’s Endangering Our National Security”, The Hill. In her article, Liz writes about the falling Diplomatic attention in the United States. But Liz may have perhaps included the African continent as well owing to the gross situation she’s been confronted with lately.
Last month, the world, especially Africa, woke to a surprise over the news break of a military take-over in the Niger, in which President Mohamed Bazoum was ousted by members of the presidential Guards led by Col. Abdourahamane Tchiani. Although it is not a surprise, Coups lately have been a return trend in the Continent: Mali, Chad, Guinea, Sudan, and Burkina Faso,  with two unsuccessful attempts in Guinea-Bissau and previously in Niger, until now. The Coupists have said continually deteriorating security situation and several economic reasons are reasons for the Coup.
But what makes this coup different is the response. Unlike previous where they’ve been simply dealt with as internal issues, the Niger coup has seen another kind of response: a more escalated tone. Four days into the coup leaders of the Economic Community of the West African States, ECOWAS, chaired by the President of Nigeria Ahmed Bola Tinubu issued a 7days ultimatum to the Coupists to return power to President Bazoum or face military actions. This followed another meeting by its defence chiefs. Over the past seven days, there has been intense posture coming from both the African leaders and the International community, notably from the EU, France, and the United States.
One lesson the Niger coup present is in its nature. Unlike the previous which saw more neutralists stand in a number of ways, the Niger situation has seen an increased play of Alliance and Counter-alliance, Threats and Counter-threats, Sanctions and Counter-sanctions. For example, Following the military action threats issued by the Ecowas leadership the Niger Juntas has also responded as being ready to face any external aggression on its borders. We also see military cooperation coming from junta colleagues of Mali and Burkina Faso. Responding to both economic and bilateral sanctions, the Niger Juntas have to dispel both the Ambassadors of France, and until recently the United States; and its neighbour Nigeria, and said it officially cut ties with its Nigerian neighbour. Responding to military threats we’ve seen response of support coming from military colleagues and the contract with the popular Russian Mercenary group, Wagner. Following the elapse of the ultimatum the ECOWAS leadership convened in Abuja on Thursday, 10th Aug. 2023, to which its chairman President Bola Tinubu said all options are still on the table ‘including the use of force’. In its resolution, the council also said it has activated a standby force for the restoration of constitutional order in Niger, although it did not state when this deployment might take place. 
But as the ultimatum elapsed, the African leaders were faced with one critical question: to attack or not to attack? It is this question that awaits an answer in the coming days. However, the international community and the leadership of the Ecowas should know that Escalating this crisis through a military confrontation does not pose a better option. In the case of a possible escalation, what are the likely outcomes? Here are six important points to look at.
1. An already Volatile Niger.
The Niger State which is already battling with Poverty do not need war at this time.
2. Trouble for its Neighbours.
Wars do not pose a danger as much as it outcome. That is to say, the danger of wars is not so much in the wars as they are in its outcome. Crisis or wars do not always end at the border they spill from conflict zones into neighbouring countries, influx of displaced people into neighbouring countries as Refugees. Problems which are often accompanied by hunger and Starvation.
3. Primordial Cleavage.
Challenging the Juntas which the Nigerian state is spearheading may also be a circle of effects. That is, as much as this reflects as an ECOWAS war it may eventually turn/end into a Nigerian Nigerien war. The border condition of Niger and Nigeria have more than just a neighbouring state, as research shows, Most people of Northern Nigeria hold more Cleavage to the Niger than even to their Southern Countryside.
4. The Gas Pipe Project.
The gas piping project that the Nigerian government is embarking which began during the previous administration of former president Muhammadu Buhari, is the gas project to link Nigerian gas to Europe, owing to the Russian shortfall, may suffer a halt.
5. The International Situation.
A crisis isn’t what the world needs at this time. For anything, the war in Ukraine and the already tense-up situation between China and Taiwan, and in Africa, Sudan, makes it one reason. In a time when the eyes of the world are focused on Ukraine an already exhausted international community may pose a great limitation to how far Europe and the West may get involved in terms of aid and support should a war break.
6. Insecurity War and Terrorism.
In the ongoing fight against Terrorism lurking in the Sahel region, a destabilised Niger is not what the West African neighbour and the ECOWAS need at this time to win the fight.
On the other hand, as threats for military action are on the fore, outlooks for possible negotiation are gaining momentum, as the head of the ECOWAS mission who is also the president of Nigeria has said the ecowas will not consider a military invasion without the joint decision of the community. This is in addition to the resolution of the security committee of the Commission to engage in Diplomatic efforts after a two-day meeting last week held in Abuja.
As in-road for a possible negotiations blooms. Peace brokers or negotiators, whoever they may be, must take the following into consideration.
1. Full Understanding of the Problem.
Which involves the nature and the reasons. First. This is not just any crisis, ethnic, religious, or tribal. This is a crisis of another kind. As such negotiators must be fully aware of what they are in for and what it may entail. Coups do not have the same meaning, even though they are bogusly coups. There are often two basic reasons for a military take-over which do not often make the public distribution. These are, ‘Ambition’, and, a ‘Perceived Rescue Mission’. In most cases, the latter often make the definition as Juntas see this as a measure to salvage the State from unaccountable democratic leadership who already are insensitive to the challenges. For example, all through the military usurpation in the last two years Putschists have said they are on a salvation mission. In the first, Juntas see themselves as superior, intoxicated by the Camouflage which is the symbol of authority itself, and as such feel out of size to civilian control. Understanding the problem here helps unbound this intricacy.
2. Professionalism.
Professionalism is the Key. While understanding helps to unbound the true cause, professionalism avails which method may be appropriate. Here we want to see a situation where all factors to resolution are intelligently followed. A situation where round pegs are not forced into square holes could lead to a futile or a dead end. Second, negotiators must not approach resolution from a ‘lawyer suit’ or ‘case file’ perspective, which may often lead to a tense situation altogether to any true meaning of finding a solution. The lawyer suit method is often a heady one, prideful, and, arrogant. It seeks to justify one side over the other and undermine the rationale of the other which he so sees. Above all, he must put all measures on board especially fairness, openness and listening attentively.
3. Mutual Respect.
One thing negotiators must take to mind is this. Although they are coup executors they are not rebels. These have been high-ranking personnel who served their Nation before now in various capacities. Respect for this place can help inform a mode of conversation and, a range of decisions one hopes to take during the process.
But, above all, it is time for the ECOWAS and African leadership to store strong and effective measures to ensure this does not repeat or grow into a fashionable trend in the future. And one way this can be achieved is rather not in the multiplicity of parastatals or agencies but in the true institutions of democracy, which are, good governance, accountability, justice, rule of law, free and fair electoral processes, and inclusion.

*Jerry O Jonah is a Political affairs analyst, speaker and life coach.